MADISON, WI — Turnout in Dane County, Wisconsin, where the bright blue city of Madison sits, has repeatedly made Democrats competitive in one of the nation’s purplest states.
Now Dane County’s Democratic Party chair, Alexia Sabor, is trying to figure out if that success can be replicated in other parts of the state.
“Although the strategy of relying on landing in Dane and Milwaukee County has worked so far, all the eggs in the two-basket strategy eventually may not be successful,” she told NOTUS. If the party can expand success beyond that, “we’ve dampened potential for fluctuations.”
Sabor became chair in 2019, and in that time, Democrats have won 80% of statewide races. And Dane’s turnout ultimately drives those statewide wins. While both President Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 won Dane County, Biden turned out a larger margin of victory in Dane. Biden had 5 points on Clinton, 75.5% versus 70.4%, and he beat Trump by 35,000 more votes in Dane than Clinton did. In 2020, Wisconsin was decided statewide by only 20,000.
It’s not a one-time thing either. In 2018, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers beat incumbent Scott Walker by around 29,000 votes. Evers’ margin in Dane was over 48,000 more than the Democrat who Walker beat statewide in 2014.
“It’s a risk for a party to put its eggs mostly in two baskets in Dane County and Milwaukee County,” Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center, said. “Those are the two bluest and biggest counties, and they need to perform well if Democrats are going to be competitive statewide.”
So Sabor, despite her faith that Dane will continue to turn out in big numbers, started looking around at other counties similar enough to Dane where some of her success could be replicated.
“Most places do not have a Madison, sure, but we organize really successfully in Waunakee,” a Madison suburb, Sabor said. “Waunakee, in terms of the number [of people] and the way they vote at the top of the ticket versus how they vote in spring nonpartisan races, it’s very similar to places in Columbia County like Lodi and Portage.”
Sabor accordingly looked at Columbia, Dane’s neighbor to the north. One thing the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is broadly known for is the success of its “Neighborhood Action Team” model, which consists of active year-round groups that target local politicking: engaging in community conversations, meeting with local leaders and recruiting volunteers. Now-chairman of the state party, Ben Wikler, was a member of one of these teams before ascending to the top of the party.
Dane County has a number of these teams in place, so when officials in Columbia County were trying to set up a team, Sabor reached out.
“We talked to them about how we did it. We talked to them about what it costs. We talked to them about how their costs might be a little bit different because they’re just starting out and we have an established team,” she said. “We talked to them about having somebody mentor who’s an experienced team lead from here because we have some people who are willing to do that.”
“We have been impressed with the success of those community action teams in Dane,” said Nancy Kunde, a co-chair of the Columbia County Democrats. “I always believe in sharing ideas, and what is it? Copying is the sincerest form of flattery?”
Kunde confirmed that Sabor offered assistance and added that she came to a Columbia Dems monthly meeting to discuss the idea with members.
Ultimately, the goal is to produce votes outside of Dane and Milwaukee to not only ease long-term pressures and reliance on their turnout but hopefully to run up the margin when those counties do turn out. Biden won Wisconsin by around 20,000 votes in 2020, which far outpaces even the population in some counties. That large figure can be daunting, and it can be hard to gauge what role any county should have in contributing to a statewide win, so Sabor has tried to break it down to a more digestible figure.
“I actually did the math. And if we took Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, took out Dane and Milwaukee counties, and divided that margin by the remaining 70 counties, that’s 316 more votes per county, which feels very doable,” she said. “It’s much different than saying 22,000.”
She’s also not expecting these counties to find 500 or even 100 voters by Election Day. It’s about setting a goal and moving toward it over time with a trusted playbook — like neighborhood teams, like canvassing, like fundraising.
“It’s the plan for the future. The GOP didn’t rise to ascendancy in five minutes, right? They had a plan, and it was executed over 40 years. If we don’t start for 40 years, we’re going to be relying on this strategy that may not continue to work,” she said. “This is long term.”
Susan Knower, chair of the Sauk County Dems, said she and Sabor “work closely together.”
“We’ve just taken a page outof their playbook, for sure. We’ve been doing that…since 2022,” Knower told NOTUS. And in 2023, when Judge Janet Protasiewicz ran for the state’s Supreme Court and secured a liberal majority, “she won our county as well.”
Sauk is one of Wisconsin’s two bellwether counties, so the margins in statewide races run closer there. Knower hadn’t heard the 316 figure from Sabor but said there’s widespread messaging from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and the Dane County Dems about trying to win even two or three more votes per precinct. Is there a number that feels deliverable this fall?
“I do believe 100 [more Democratic] votes in Sauk County is absolutely doable,” she said. “I think the energy is on our side for sure. When I was knocking doors last weekend, I ran into people, the household was Republican, and they were going to vote blue all the way down. In fact, the woman said to me, ‘I saw that my neighbor has a sign,’ and I said, ‘Well, I have a Harris sign in my trunk. Do you want one?’ And so she put up a sign.”
Sauk and Columbia are different from Dane, and like most anywhere else in Wisconsin, they’re more rural. Democrats nationally have hemorrhaged that demographic, but returning to places that run red is crucial in finding these two or three new blue voters each cycle. That’s how Knower found the woman she gave a sign.
“Democrats are now in agreement that they can’t give up on rural communities … they need to keep their margins of loss down,” Burden said. “I think voters in rural communities, small towns are seeing activity from the Democratic Party they have not seen in the past. I’m not sure that that’s going to bubble up exactly the way the statewide Democratic Party claims, but it does mean there’s activity and visibility, and that might mobilize Democratic voters.”
And seeing a typically Republican voter putting up the Harris sign meant a lot to Knower.
“I think sometimes the cities don’t realize that, but in rural areas, signs are very important,” she said.
For her part, Sabor is working to maintain and heighten Dane County’s turnout for this fall. The county party has opened 12 field offices in Dane County, seven of which are outside of Madison. Five years ago, they opened three.
Her mission is not so different from anyone else’s, fundamentally: She’s looking to get out more blue votes. Expectations are high in Dane, and the county will almost certainly turn out more than 316 new blue votes. That’s not stopping Sabor from hoping other counties can do something too.
“Even if you can ‘only’ do 50 new votes, well, you’re not gonna get to 316 until you do 50, right? And maybe 316 is never feasible for your county, but we can’t plan for it if we’re not talking about it,” she said.
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Nuha Dolby is a reporter at NOTUS and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.