When top GOP brass tapped Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom as their preferred candidate for Alaska’s single House seat at the end of 2023, they showered her with praise. Former President Donald Trump called her a “proven fighter” in his endorsement. Speaker Mike Johnson was so bullish about Dahlstrom reclaiming what “should be a Republican seat” that he named her one of his favorite recruits.
Just months before November, the GOP’s high hopes of their candidate winning back the most Trump-loving district represented by a Democrat, Rep. Mary Peltola, have wilted. After disappointing results in the state’s open primary on Aug. 20, Dahlstrom dropped out. The Republican Party immediately lined up behind businessman Nick Begich, the Republican renegade of an otherwise Democratic political family, who outperformed Dahlstrom in the primary.
But the party has a tough climb if they hope to win back the seat, which was long held by the fabled dean of the House, Rep. Don Young, who died in March 2022. They’re struggling to navigate Alaska’s esoteric election and are facing a well-liked incumbent with a massive war chest whose moderate politics defy ready vilification. It’s become a headache for Republicans who were hoping for an easy pickup in a cycle where control of the House could come down to just a few seats.
“I will say to folks watching: It’s a tight race,” Matt Shuckerow, a Republican strategist who served as Sen. Dan Sullivan’s former campaign manager, told NOTUS. “It will remain a tight race.”
The seat slipped through Republicans’ fingers two years ago in what was widely seen as an upset. During the special election to replace Young, infighting between Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin stymied any unified party message. The same people railing against Alaska’s new electoral system, ranked-choice voting, couldn’t persuade their party faithful to actually “rank the red.”
That left an opening for Peltola to do what hadn’t been done in Alaska since 1972 — she flipped the seat blue.
Peltola celebrated her August special election victory with a traditional Alaska dessert and Lil Nas X’s “Industry Baby,” poised to secure a full term three months later. The GOP limped back to the drawing board and vowed to learn from its 2022 mistakes, attempting to prop up a fresh candidate and adopting a new tactic to maneuver through ranked-choice voting.
But in the state’s open primary this month — in which the top four vote-getters advance to the general election — Dahlstrom earned just 20% of the vote to Begich’s 27% and Peltola’s 50%.
With Dahlstrom out of the picture, Peltola will still face multiple candidates in the general election: Begich, a second lesser-known Republican and a little-funded conservative independent. The last two candidates didn’t have enough support to qualify for the debate-like Alaska Oil and Gas Association forum this week.
Within hours of Dahlstrom dropping out, the party lined up behind Begich. Trump, Johnson and the House GOP campaign arm all issued glowing endorsements. Nationally, the party is unified — they’ve made that crystal clear.
“Alaska Republicans are united and fully prepared to make liberal Democrat Mary Peltola a one-term Representative,” Begich said in a statement to NOTUS, which has been echoed by others, including the National Republican Congressional Committee.
On the ground, however, it remains to be seen whether a big enough coalition of independent swing voters and MAGA diehards can rally around a retread candidate whose viability the establishment apparently doubted. The question remains: Will voters settle for a candidate who was top Republicans’ second choice?
Though it may matter little what the GOP establishment thinks.
“Alaskans know Howard Johnson’s more than they know Mike Johnson,” longtime Alaska journalist Larry Persily — who briefly served in Peltola’s D.C. office — told NOTUS in reference to the now-defunct restaurant chain.
While Dahlstrom ran with endorsements from House leadership, Begich collected local grassroots support from state lawmakers, local mayors and city council members. His higher-profile backing comes from the conservative likes of national Trump surrogate Vivek Ramaswamy and House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good. Much of his message hinges on national Republican talking points: immigration, crime and the economy.
“Rep. Peltola ran as a moderate, but has consistently voted with DC Democrats for higher spending, open borders, and the Biden/Harris agenda that makes our country less prosperous and less safe,” Begich said in a statement, boilerplate language that could easily be used by most competitive GOP House challengers.
During the AOGA candidate forum Wednesday, Begich leaned into that strategy, attempting to tie Peltola to national Democrats who vote against popular Alaska issues like resource development projects.
“When Mary Peltola votes for the speaker of the House to be a Democrat, she’s signing us up for the Democrat agenda,” Begich said.
But Peltola has put distance between herself and prominent Democrats. She championed a popular ConocoPhillips oil development project known as Willow. She bucks her party more than almost any other Democrat. And she has declined to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.
Those decisions have irritated some Democratic Party loyalists, but as Peltola squares off against Begich, they may be more likely to help with independents than hurt her with Democrats.
“She’s playing politics with it, and that’s turning off some Democrats,” Persily said of her decision not to endorse Harris. “But what are they going to do? Vote for Nick Begich?”
Peltola’s campaign did not respond to emailed questions from NOTUS.
Begich’s net favorability, according to a March Data for Progress poll, is 0. With independents, it’s -10. Peltola — who is known for being “nice” — has a +10 net favorability in the same poll that shoots to +18 with independents.
Despite her affable reputation, Peltola didn’t pull punches against Begich during the Wednesday forum: “A lot of us in this room are wondering whether this is more about your personal ambition than the best interests in Alaska,” she said.
National Democratic strategists insist they are unruffled by Dahlstrom’s withdrawal and that Peltola is prepared to compete.
“Regardless of who is on the ballot, Mary’s strong record of working with both parties to deliver for Alaska will ensure her reelection,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Mallory Payne told NOTUS in a statement.
Still, the GOP rallying around a single contender wasn’t some Democrats’ preference. The Vote Alaska Before Party PAC — which the Hakeem Jeffries-aligned House Majority PAC funded last cycle — dumped nearly $1 million into the race ahead of the primary to advance three Republicans, apparently gambling that they would siphon votes from one other while Peltola breezed to victory.
Begich doesn’t have much time to patch up his campaign’s biggest hole — the one in his wallet. As national Republicans support Begich, national-tier fundraising will likely follow. But Peltola is sitting on over $3 million cash on hand — and counting — while Begich finished the primary with less than $200,000. Johnson and his House GOP campaign infrastructure will now have to play catch-up if they want to stay competitive in Alaska as Peltola and her allies blast campaign materials across the nation’s largest state. It’s expected to be one of the most expensive House races in the country.
After all, both parties “have made the appeal to candidates, but also to contributors, that this is a number one pickup seat for national Democrats to protect,” Shuckerow said, “and for national Republicans to win back.”