Mike Johnson’s Favorite Candidate Quit in Alaska. Can the GOP Still Flip Alaska’s Lone House Seat?

“I will say it to folks watching: It’s a tight race,” Republican strategist Matt Shuckerow told NOTUS. “It will remain a tight race.”

Nick Begich
Alaska’s lone House seat has become a headache for Republicans hoping for an easy pickup in a cycle where control of the chamber could come down to just a few seats. Mark Thiessen/AP

When top GOP brass tapped Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom as their preferred candidate for Alaska’s single House seat at the end of 2023, they showered her with praise. Former President Donald Trump called her a “proven fighter” in his endorsement. Speaker Mike Johnson was so bullish about Dahlstrom reclaiming what “should be a Republican seat” that he named her one of his favorite recruits.

Just months before November, the GOP’s high hopes of their candidate winning back the most Trump-loving district represented by a Democrat, Rep. Mary Peltola, have wilted. After disappointing results in the state’s open primary on Aug. 20, Dahlstrom dropped out. The Republican Party immediately lined up behind businessman Nick Begich, the Republican renegade of an otherwise Democratic political family, who outperformed Dahlstrom in the primary.

But the party has a tough climb if they hope to win back the seat, which was long held by the fabled dean of the House, Rep. Don Young, who died in March 2022. They’re struggling to navigate Alaska’s esoteric election and are facing a well-liked incumbent with a massive war chest whose moderate politics defy ready vilification. It’s become a headache for Republicans who were hoping for an easy pickup in a cycle where control of the House could come down to just a few seats.