Today’s notice: Polling is infuriating, congressional leadership is equivocating, Jon Tester is still missing three fingers.
There is a chart a lot of people I talk to these days are obsessed with. It’s that one that compares current polling to the polling errors of 2020 and 2022. If the polls were as wrong as they were in ’20, Donald Trump wins easily. If they’re as wrong as they were in 2022, Kamala Harris cruises to victory. If the polls are absolutely right, the race is basically a coin flip. But they’re probably not absolutely right, which means anything could happen. Got it?
While my first impulse upon hearing all of this was to fly to a deserted island and not return until well after the election, I instead took one more chance on civilization and asked experienced folks for their working hypothesis of what the polls are wrong about this time.