Today’s notice: Democrats are predicting precinct vote counts in Nevada. We got a peek at JD Vance’s spin room lineup. And this spooky season, Democrats want Project 2025 to haunt even more races.
Rumbles of the Reid Machine
“I mean, he comes down to 10 votes a precinct, right?” Rep. Susie Lee told me in the back of Teamsters Local 14 union hall in Las Vegas Saturday. She was breaking down a potential Donald Trump win here to specific blocks, individual houses. The Reid machine is rumbling to life. “Like I said, this will be a turnout election,” she said.
The state of the GOTV machine built by the late Jedi Master Harry Reid is, really, the only thing to ask about in this state as the days click down to the start of Nevada early voting on Oct. 19. Years after the death of the man, the legend remains — but it faces a test unlike any other it has before.
Hillary Clinton’s only swing state win was in Nevada. Joe Biden won it too. It was not looking like he’d win it a second time, but Kamala Harris has “been able to make this race winnable,” Ted Pappageorge, president of the all-powerful Culinary Workers local, whose GOTV operation is one of the wonders of the political world. His members are already out, taking monthslong leaves of absence from their jobs, making Nevada’s tourism industry work and working for the union on the doors instead.
“If the election was held right now, Trump would win,” Pappageorge said of Nevada. “The difference is that we’re gearing up.”
Still, it can be confusing to figure out what gearing up fully looks like. Take the Teamsters: The national union declined to offer an endorsement this cycle, but the locals are doing it anyway. The massive Joint Councils of Teamsters 7 and 42, representing locals in Southern California and Nevada, among other places, endorsed Harris. Locals in Vegas don’t list that endorsement on their website. But, the Local 14 hall was used for an organizing event that included other unions who have endorsed and were hitting the doors for the VP. Is this labor chaos a challenge for the Reid machine, which was built on unifying the various Democratic allied groups into a single force?
Susie Martinez, secretary treasurer of the state AFL-CIO, told me the national Teamsters non-endorsement still grates. “Honestly, I’m not sure what to say,” Martinez, a veteran of labor politics whose first run for state legislature came while she was still working the front desk at a hotel on the Strip. “Just keep in mind the Teamsters in Nevada have endorsed her.”
Machine principles are at work. Prominent progressive organizer Laura Martin’s group, PLAN Action, is focused on low-propensity voters (who Martin calls “high potential voters”). They’re already hitting some doors the fourth time, in a coordinated plan with other progressive groups.
But the years have frayed some of the tight connections between groups that make the Reid machine work. Martin said Reid called her himself in 2009 to support his tough reelection bid, and Reid’s campaign would check in regularly to get her rowing in the same direction as every other Dem ally, large and small. Does that kind of constant communication still happen from the top down? “No, that’s gone,” she said. In her own work, she often asks, “How do we recreate that leadership pipeline?”
—Evan McMorris-Santoro, reporting from Las Vegas | Read more here.
NOTUS Exclusive: JD Vance’s Spin Room Lineup
A source familiar gave NOTUS’ Reese Gorman the rundown on who will be working the spin room for Vance after Tuesday’s VP debate:
- Jason Miller
- Donald Trump Jr.
- Tom Cotton
- Katie Britt
- Elise Stefanik
- Byron Donalds
- Howard Lutnick
Cotton and Britt are among some of Vance’s closest allies in Congress. Trump Jr. pushed his father to choose Vance as the running mate, and Lutnick, the billionaire businessman and Trump fundraising heavyweight, is a co-chair of Trump’s transition team.
Front Page
- Democrats Take Project 2025 to House Races: The conservative policy agenda is still causing headaches for Republicans.
- Congress Is Struggling to Stay Up to Date on Israel’s Rapidly Broadening Wars: The body with oversight responsibility is frustrated.
- Why Kamala Harris’ Trade Policy Message Isn’t Clear-Cut: Democrats are going after Trump on tariffs. New Biden administration tariff hikes took effect Friday.
Expect to Hear a Lot More About Project 2025
Project 2025 continues to draw negative headlines for Republicans. *Cough Cough* RealClearPolitics’ report Friday that project director Paul Dans was actually fired by Heritage for misconduct. (The Foundation announced he’d resigned in July.)
No wonder Democrats are now taking the message down ballot, hoping Project 2025 will play well in GOP districts Biden won in 2020.
“I cannot think of a single parallel that comes even close,” Maryann Cousens, polling and analytics manager at the liberal Hub Project, told NOTUS’ Alex Roarty and Ben T.N. Mause about the power of the conservative policy agenda as a political message.
Despite Trump trying very hard to distance himself from it, Republicans are denying Project 2025’s political salience: “We’re not seeing it as strong a weapon as they think it is at this juncture,” one strategist said.
Week Ahead
- Vance and Tim Walz will duke it out at the VP debate live in New York at 9 p.m. ET on CBS Tuesday night.
- Doug Emhoff is stumping for Harris’ economic plan in Milwaukee on Tuesday. He won’t be the only one in Wisconsin: Trump will also campaign in Milwaukee and Dane County.
- Jimmy Carter turns 100 on Tuesday.
- Harris and Walz are bus touring through central Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
- Speaking of Pennsylvania, Senate candidates Bob Casey and Dave McCormick will square off in their first debate on Thursday. NOTUS’ Katherine Swartz will keep tabs.
- On Saturday, Trump’s planning on returning to Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of the first assassination attempt against him.
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by … not us.
- The Texas Tribune dives into John Cornyn and Ted Cruz’s situationship.
- Mitch McConnell talks tariffs with Semafor.
- The Washington Post’s series on U.S. sanctions policy goes to Guatemala.
- A Supreme Court justice warned that the Chevron ruling would cause “large-scale disruption.” ProPublica found people are already feeling the effects.
Be Social
Russell Brand, Gavin de Becker and RFK Jr. spotted leaving a meeting on Capitol Hill.
Spotted leaving a meeting on Capitol Hill: RFK Jr., Russell Brand and Gavin De Becker.
— Reese Gorman (@reesejgorman) September 29, 2024
RFK didn’t answer any questions about him and Olivia Nuzzi. Brand and De Becker didn’t answer questions about the meeting pic.twitter.com/1M2d6YOvxu
Tell Us Your Thoughts
Today’s question comes from a NOTUS reader:
You have the chance to write one piece of single-issue legislation that would be unanimously passed by both chambers, with no amendments, and immediately signed by the president. But as soon as it’s signed, you have to resign from your seat, never to return. What would that legislation include?
Send your thoughts to newsletters@notus.org.
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