Sen. Mark Kelly didn’t get picked to be Kamala Harris’ running mate. His consolation prize, however, may be his rising stock in Arizona politics.
The senator is growing into his role as the senior-most Democrat in the state and being viewed as more of an influential figure in the swing state’s often contentious elections — a clout that has only increased since he was floated as a top contender for vice president.
Now, the question facing the retired astronaut turned politician is: Can Kelly actually translate this national attention into playing kingmaker?
“To put it simply, Mark Kelly is a rock star in the Arizona Democratic Party. As we see his name get considered for vice president, voters across the country are starting to see that as well,” Aaron Márquez, a Phoenix Union School Board member, told NOTUS, echoing a common sentiment among Democrats in the state. “If you’re going to have an endorsement in the Democratic Party, there’s probably no better endorsement than Mark Kelly right now in Arizona.”
But the earliest test of Kelly’s sway, playing out in Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District’s Democratic primary, has been far from decisive.
More than one week after Tuesday’s primary, the race to fill Rep. Ruben Gallego’s House seat is still contested and going to a recount, with Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari leading former state Democratic Party chair and state legislator Raquel Terán by less than 50 votes. Kelly endorsed Terán early, in June 2023. (As did Márquez.)
Terán had made Kelly’s endorsement, along with Planned Parenthood’s, a central component of her campaign. That wasn’t enough on its own, though one Arizona Democratic operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the closeness of Arizona Democratic politics, said there’s an argument to be made that Ansari would have had a “runaway victory,” were it not for Kelly’s endorsement.
Even if this congressional race doesn’t go his way, there’s an expectation in the state that voters will be seeing more of Kelly in the coming years.
“It might not be the perfect example, but I think it could be the start of a Harry Reid-like machine,” another Democratic consultant told NOTUS. “I don’t think it’s necessarily done as deliberately, but I think he has made the decision to extend his leadership beyond just his own election campaign, which is something Reid did in Nevada as well.”
Kelly became Arizona’s top Democrat after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the party in December 2022. But he only truly assumed the mantle earlier this year when Sinema, who Democratic insiders said sucked up a lot of the oxygen in the state, announced she was not seeking reelection.
Her departure has given Kelly more room to establish himself, Arizona’s Democratic insiders say.
“In some respects, this is Sen. Kelly trying to carve out his own identity by saying here are the people I support,” the Democratic operative told NOTUS. “In some ways purposefully and in some ways he didn’t have a choice, but he was always going to be in the shadow of Kyrsten Sinema while she was in the Senate. Now that she is stepping off to stage right, there’s an opportunity for him to establish his own name and brand.”
Kelly’s power in the state comes from his ability to win over independent voters, a demographic all Democrats running statewide, like Harris, must carry to win in November. Democrats have fewer registered voters in Arizona than Republicans and independents do.
But Kelly bucked the odds; he won a special election to fill the late Sen. John McCain’s seat in 2020, and then ran again for a full term two years later. Biden also won the state in 2020 and the state also elected Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2022.
“That’s all infrastructure that was built and left from the two Kelly Senate races,” the Democratic consultant said, noting that several in leadership positions at the Biden-now-Harris campaign are former Kelly staff members. Jen Cox, a senior adviser for the Harris campaign, is Kelly’s former chief of staff, and her campaign manager in Arizona, Sean McEnerney, was Kelly’s coordinated campaign director in 2022.
Part of what makes Kelly’s infrastructure so good is continuity, operatives in the state say.
One of the Democratic consultants said that in normal governor or Senate campaigns, large field operations are built up and torn down every four to six years. But because Kelly ran twice in a short period of time with many of the same people, it remained in place and was kept for the presidential election.
Kelly’s infrastructure also includes access and relationship building. The consultant said that Kelly “shows up” and is accessible in a way that politicians at his level are not.
Having former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who retired from Congress after being shot in 2011 and is beloved in Arizona Democratic circles, by his side is also a major factor. Giffords, who is married to Kelly, has built a large following around gun safety issues, which increases Kelly’s political pull in the state, the consultant said.
“His team makes a deliberate effort to do politics on a very local level. It’s very time-consuming, but it makes a big difference,” they said. “People remember that. Mark and Gabby are both very good at making people feel seen and heard and important.”
Already, there are echoes of Kelly’s political strategy in the Harris campaign. Democrats launched “Republicans for Harris” in Arizona this week, which is something Kelly did two years ago with “Republicans for Kelly.”
“The campaign in Arizona is creating a permission structure for Republicans who aren’t on board with the extremism that is happening with the MAGA movement to come on board and vote for Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz,” the consultant said.
Still, whether Kelly can establish political power beyond his own election cycles remains to be seen, as this was the sole contested primary Kelly endorsed in.
“I think that political clout is a lot like a home value,” the Democratic operative said. “You can track it on Zillow. But until someone actually pays you money for your house, you don’t know what your home value is.”
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Tara Kavaler is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.