In an election where nothing can be taken for granted, Democrats are hoping their vice presidential candidate can help lock up an electoral vote that’s up for grabs in Nebraska come November.
They’re betting that Tim Walz, who was raised there, can help counteract some of the “stereotypes” that might be associated with Vice President Kamala Harris, who is from California and might be perceived as “overly liberal” or “out of touch” by Nebraska voters, state Sen. Jen Day told NOTUS.
But Walz, she added, offers some “small-town charm that people would be looking for in Nebraska.”
Nebraska is one of only two states that doesn’t abide by a winner-takes-all approach in the presidential race — instead, the statewide winner gets two Electoral College votes, and the rest are divided based on who wins each congressional district.
While the state itself is red, this district — which encompasses Omaha and its suburbs — has changed parties in recent presidential elections. Barack Obama won it in 2008, Donald Trump got it in 2016 and Joe Biden took it in 2020. Democratic officials say Walz — who wears flannel and likes to go hunting — is reflective of the state and will appeal to voters there with similar backgrounds.
Harris has been polling far better than Biden in the district. A recent survey conducted by the conservative polling firm Remington Research Group after Walz became the official Democratic vice presidential pick found that Harris leads Trump 50% to 42% there, with most previous polls showing either Trump narrowly leading or narrowly trailing Biden.
Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said that at a recent event, Walz’s Nebraska ties were what people wanted to talk to her about the most.
“It’s like this whole new world, and we feel, you know, a strong sense of pride,” Kleeb said. “That connection is clearly going to help, and I think really does help Harris and Walz expand the map beyond the battleground states.”
While often people think of Nebraska as a “flyover state,” having Walz and other national Democrats “really paying attention to our state” is increasing voters’ excitement ahead of November, Kleeb said.
C.J. King, chair of the Douglas County Democratic Party, which is where Omaha is located, told NOTUS that “any national attempt brought by the Democratic Party helps us win races in Nebraska.”
“I think there’s some extended coattails to Tony Vargas” and other congressional races in the state from the focus further up the ticket, King said. “If nothing else, to get [donors] to spend money on the race.”
The importance of Nebraska’s single toss-up Electoral College vote is clear to the Harris-Walz campaign. Walz’s first solo rally earlier this month took place in Omaha, where he highlighted his ties to the state, telling a crowd that held “welcome home” signs that “it feels pretty good to be back.”
Walz was born and raised in Valentine, Nebraska, and moved to Minnesota, his wife’s home state, in 1996.
“You can take the man out of Nebraska … but you can’t take Nebraska out of the man,” Gwen Walz, the governor’s wife, said at the rally.
Walz personally made a point of highlighting his upbringing, saying that Nebraska and Minnesota prioritize Midwestern values of working together despite differences and being willing to “lend a helping hand” to a neighbor.
“Those are the values I learned out in Valentine. Those are the values that I learned out in Butte. Those are the values I learned with these people who are here, that I tried to instill in my students, that I took to the United States Capitol and took to our state capitol. Now it’s time for Vice President Harris and I, as we’re running on these values, let’s take them to the White House,” he said.
He compared himself to Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, who also stopped by Omaha for a fundraiser a week later, arguing that Vance just doesn’t understand a state like Nebraska. Vance has highlighted his rural-state roots from Ohio both on the trail and throughout his political career.
“Do you think JD Vance knows one damn thing about Nebraska?” he asked the crowd. “Now look, he wrote a memoir at the ripe old age of 31, and he claimed to be an expert on Middle America, all the while trashing and denigrating the very community he was raised in.”
State Sen. Tony Vargas, who is seeking to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon in the 2nd Congressional District, also spoke at Walz’s Omaha rally, highlighting the connection between Walz and the state. The House seat there has been a top target for Democrats for several cycles.
Vargas said in a statement that Walz is “resonating with Nebraskans and helping fuel our campaign, leading to more volunteer recruitment and enthusiasm than ever before.”
Since Walz was announced as Harris’ running mate, Vargas’ campaign has had a 153% increase in first-time donors and volunteer sign-ups have tripled, according to the campaign.
While Bacon told NOTUS that Walz being from Nebraska “may help a little” for Democrats in the state, he added that Walz has a “liberal” record that could put off swing voters.
“The more folks know about Walz’s record here in Omaha, the more votes he’ll cost their ticket,” he said, suggesting it’s up to Republicans to communicate that to voters.
Delanie Bomar, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, doesn’t see Walz as a threat for the House race, considering Bacon kept his seat in 2020 even when Biden won the district’s Electoral College vote.
“Bacon has a totally unique brand and a proven record of delivering bipartisan, commonsense results for Nebraskans,” she said in a statement to NOTUS.
The Harris-Walz campaign has been holding weekly phone banking and canvass events in the district and has been running ads there “for months,” according to the campaign. It was a destination for Democrats even before Walz became Harris’ running mate: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff visited Omaha in July, just days before Biden dropped out, for an event with young voters. And in March, Emhoff traveled there as a surrogate of the Biden-Harris campaign to talk about abortion rights.
But Democrats see a clear rise in energy since Walz was added to the ticket, and they are hoping that he not only helps with the district but helps secure abortion rights as well. Nebraska is one of multiple states where abortion will appear on the ballot this fall, and it’s the only state with dueling initiatives. One would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution, and the other would create a constitutional restriction.
Abortion rights and reproductive health access are already leading issues for Democrats. But Walz has talked about the personal experience he and his wife have had with fertility treatments. He highlighted that in Omaha.
“We know in this room, abortion is health care and, once again, that is your decision to make,” Walz said. “When they make decisions about your health care, yes, it’s weird, but it’s worse than that, it’s dangerous.”
Between abortion rights and Walz’s appeal, Democrats think they stand a good chance of attracting even Republicans and independents, whose numbers have been increasing in the district.
“You’re going to see some hometown advantage in our state, especially in the 2nd Congressional District, that’s our blue dot,” Kleeb said. “We are getting a lot of phone calls and emails from Republicans, from independents in rural areas, asking us for yard signs, asking us for the big farm signs, telling us that they’re voting for Harris and Walz this cycle.”
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Oriana González is a reporter at NOTUS.