Republicans Are Going to Have a Hard Time Saying Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves

In 2017, Republicans relied on the prospect of economic growth to pass their tax cuts. But this time, those economic projections might hurt more than they help.

Mike Johnson

House Speaker Mike Johnson is contending with a small majority, and several Republican lawmakers who have said they won’t vote for a bill that increases the debt. Mark Schiefelbein/AP

“Tax cuts pay for themselves” — it’s the refrain that helped push the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which included billions of dollars in rate reductions for both corporations and individuals, over the finish line — even with the most deficit-conscious Republicans.

Now, Republicans are in the early stages of negotiations to extend Donald Trump’s signature tax achievement. But with an estimated price tag of $5 trillion, that argument will be much harder to sell this time around.

The 2017 tax cuts did not actually pay for themselves over the course of the last eight years, with the national debt ballooning to more than $36 trillion from $20 trillion and debt now outpacing economic growth. With inflation still higher than average and government borrowing continuing to grow, there are significantly fewer levers Republicans can pull for growth contributions.