As the reconciliation process enters its first big test — a committee markup in the House on Thursday — the White House is already working the phones.
On Wednesday, Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington released legislative language for the House budget, which will serve as the vehicle for a reconciliation bill: $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, a minimum of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts and an increase to the debt ceiling of $4 trillion.
After weeks of internal strife, the budget resolution was a bit of a surprise. Many Republicans thought the House would need at least next week’s recess to get lawmakers in line and sort out the remaining issues. But Arrington announced on Tuesday that — surprise! — his panel was moving ahead this week, leaving Republicans with just hours to finish their blueprint.
But drafting legislative language is hardly the only concern. The proposed cuts aren’t in line with the ambitions of fiscal hawks, and most of the tax cuts aren’t offset, meaning the legislation would increase the deficit. Adding to the problems, $4.5 trillion isn’t actually enough to enact all of President Donald Trump’s campaign proposals on taxes. And a $4 trillion debt ceiling raise will be a tough sell with the most ideologically pure Republicans.
The budget, in short, promises to disappoint everyone at least a little bit. The question is, does it do enough of everything else to win over almost every Republican?
According to a White House official, staffers with the Office of Legislative Affairs have been calling Republican lawmakers to gauge their support — and the initial indications on Wednesday weren’t great.
Rep. Ralph Norman, who said he received a call, described the budget resolution as insufficient. He said the cuts were a “teardrop in the ocean,” and he told the White House there are still “more details” to work through.
But Norman also said the White House was “in agreement” with Arrington’s budget resolution.
(The White House official pushed back on that characterization, telling NOTUS that aides weren’t advocating for the budget — they’re “just listening.”)
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Regardless, if staffers are just listening, they’re likely to hear plenty of complaints.
Among those who seem upset are a number of Freedom Caucus members who sit on the Budget Committee, just like Norman.
One of those Republicans is Rep. Chip Roy. He was noncommittal about supporting the budget out of committee on Thursday. Both he and Norman want more assurances that the $1.5 trillion in cuts is just a floor, and they want commitments that committees will seek more cuts than the ones laid out in the resolution.
Roy said there are “a lot of variables,” but he’s still reviewing the resolution.
Meanwhile, Norman said his vote will depend on what amendments are adopted during the markup on Thursday. Among the proposed amendments, Norman said there was one mirroring the REINS Act — a proposal to increase legislative oversight of federal agencies — along with amendments to give states a fixed amount in Medicaid block grants, as well as one to make Medicaid for certain people contingent on them working.
Another member of the Freedom Caucus who also sits on the Budget Committee, Rep. Josh Brecheen, told NOTUS he wouldn’t commit one way or the other. But he said he was “driving deep in numbers right now” and trying to “make sure that, at the end of the day, that we do something about the inflation tax.”
Arrington can only afford to lose two Republican votes in committee. And there are five Freedom Caucus members on the committee — enough to tank it if just three choose to vote against the resolution.
But it doesn’t appear as if every Freedom Caucus member on the committee is against the budget. One of the Republicans sitting in both camps, Rep. Ben Cline, said he was “hopeful” the budget would advance to the floor.
“I think it will,” Cline said, “if we can get those assurances that the committees are not going to just rest on these floors and that they’re going to strive to find the maximum savings possible.”
GOP leaders also sounded confident that the budget would advance out of committee. One senior GOP aide told NOTUS that it would be hard for members to “vote against the president if the chairman actually calls the vote.”
Additionally, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said if “Jodey says he’s got the votes, I assume he’s got the votes.”
“The issue isn’t the markup; the issue is once it gets out,” Emmer said.
That appears to be true, as Republicans can hardly spare any votes and plenty of GOP lawmakers are less than thrilled with the legislative product.
Rep. Eric Burlison, another member of the Freedom Caucus, called the resolution “pathetic.”
“I’m inclined to not support it,” he said. “Andy Biggs reminded us of the growth and the interest on the national debt. I don’t even think that this covers the growth and the interest payments, right?”
To support the resolution, Burlison said he would need assurances from Trump that there would be more than $1.5 trillion in cuts.
“But I’m not gonna do it because Johnson promises it,” Burlison said. “Because I’ve been burned by him multiple times over the last two years. So that’s where I’m at.”
Correction: An earlier version of this story mistated how many votes Arrington could lose and still advance the budget out of committee.
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Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.