For Kari Lake’s Senate campaign, things have gone from bad to worse.
Just weeks out from Election Day, a poll had her trailing her Democratic opponent in the Arizona Senate race by double-digit points, her largest deficit to date. She didn’t get the backing of the Arizona Police Association, which gave its endorsement to her Democratic opponent instead, even though the traditionally Republican group endorsed her two years ago during her unsuccessful gubernatorial run. Lake is also at a financial disadvantage to Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has vastly outraised her as long as she’s been in the race.
Insiders attribute the campaign’s free fall to personal animus and position flip-flopping, particularly on abortion, leaving a growing number of independents and Republicans in the state running to Gallego. It’s frustrating Republicans, especially in Arizona.
“Kari Lake just refused to stick to a sustained effort to appeal to moderate and independent voters,” Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican consultant, said. “She displayed glimmers of change but then usually reverted back to her old ways.”
Her race was always going to be tough in a state where Democrats have had increasing luck in getting their candidates elected in major statewide races. But Lake is far from the spot a Senate candidate in a battleground state would want to find themselves in at this point of the election cycle, especially given the early indications that she was trying to find a way to course correct from her 2022 gubernatorial campaign.
Lake’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment when asked whether they’re concerned about the status of the race.
At the beginning of her campaign, Lake indicated in media interviews that she would try to broaden her appeal among voters, including by reaching out to John McCain-type Republicans who may have turned away from the party in the Donald Trump era. She said on Phoenix’s KTAR radio station that her previous comment about McCain supporters getting “the hell out” of one of Lake’s 2022 campaign events was a “joke,” and she reached out to Meghan McCain, the late senator’s daughter, on X wanting to work together (the offer was ultimately rebuffed).
Lake has shifted her position on abortion: While in the past she expressed support for abortion restrictions, she changed tack this cycle. When the Arizona state Supreme Court ruled that a pre-statehood abortion law could take effect, causing national outrage, she tried to distance herself from it, arguing that it had gone too far. The state Legislature eventually stepped in to repeal the law.
And Lake managed to coalesce different factions of her party behind her — Lake secured the endorsement of former Gov. Doug Ducey and former gubernatorial rival Karrin Taylor Robson, who are both considered moderates. She also got an endorsement from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, showing buy-in from national Republicans. (The NRSC did not respond to a request for comment.)
But as the campaign has gone on, Lake has become more of her 2022 self.
Republicans point to her shifting position on abortion as a reason why she has failed to convince critical moderate voters.
She has continued to be a major surrogate for Trump, even after Democrats made a point of tying her to him in the gubernatorial race, successfully arguing that she was an extremist. She recently appeared at a campaign event in the state with Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
“You have multiple messages coming out of the campaign,” said a Republican consultant who requested anonymity. “But, I’m loath to blame the campaign staff too much because when you have a candidate who is uncontrollable, there’s nothing you can do.”
Lake has also continued to use inflammatory rhetoric that repels moderate and independent voters, telling a crowd in April to “strap on a Glock” to prepare for the election.
And she leaked a conversation with former state Republican Party Chair Jeff DeWit, accusing him of “bribery” to get her out of the race. DeWit resigned as a result, with a statement that accused Lake of giving him an “ultimatum” to do so.
One Republican strategist said that this caused many Arizona Republicans to distrust her. The Republican Party of Arizona did not respond to a request for comment.
But the Republican strategist, who spoke to NOTUS on the condition of anonymity, said that in this highly charged political environment, even the voters who Republicans traditionally consider part of their base might not stick with her because of her approach to politics.
“There’s nothing about Gallego ideologically or his voting record that should make a conservative want to support him,” the strategist said. “The problem is [voters] just don’t like Kari Lake, and they have a binary choice. Gallego has benefited from that.”
For his part, Gallego has made apparent efforts to appeal to more voters, including by leaving the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Gallego’s campaign did not respond when reached for comment. The two are set to debate on Oct. 9.
With Election Day less than 60 days away, Lake’s campaign shows no signs of adjusting.
“This is a campaign going in the wrong direction and hell-bent on driving off the cliff,” Marson said.
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Tara Kavaler is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.