Sen. Tammy Baldwin has historically been able to win over a kind of voter that’s proven elusive for Democrats: the “Trump-Tammy” ticket splitter.
The last time Baldwin was up for reelection was in 2018 when Donald Trump was already in office. Not only did Baldwin secure a near-11-point victory, but she’s repeatedly won Republican and rural counties since coming into statewide office, the kind Democrats nationwide have shed. Where she doesn’t win, she typically loses by smaller margins than other statewide Democrats. But this year, Baldwin will share the ticket with Trump for the first time, making the pitch that Trump voters should also support a senator with a very liberal track record more difficult.
“In ’18, Trump … is sort of the bogeyman for Democratic criticism. But now with him on the ballot, presidential and Senate are going to be more or less next to each other … and that will tend to produce more consistent party voting,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll.