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Democrats Say Montana’s Senate Race Has Gotten Closer

“I would say flip a coin,” a former state governor said of Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection chances, after months of Democratic pessimism.

Jon Tester
Matthew Brown/AP

Democrats are growing more optimistic about Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection chances in Montana in the campaign’s final days, according to party strategists, hopeful that a late surge of support for the senator has at least put him within striking distance of Republican nominee Tim Sheehy.

After bottoming out at the end of summer, Tester’s poll numbers have bounced back in recent weeks, according to one Democratic strategist familiar with the race, who, like others interviewed for this story, emphasized that the three-term senator’s hold on the Senate seat remains precarious. But his support has grown enough that allies think the incumbent — long considered the Democratic senator most likely to lose his reelection — has at least now moved within a poll’s margin of error.

“I would say flip a coin, and then call it heads or tails before it hits your hand,” said former Democratic Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer. “And that’s how this thing is going to end.”