Joe Biden’s sudden exit from the presidential race Sunday gives a group of potential replacements what might be a once-in-a-lifetime chance to lead the Democrats’ White House ticket.
But first, they would have to decide to enter an abbreviated race, knowing full well that the odds are stacked against them.
Any Democratic candidate who attempts to vault Vice President Kamala Harris and become the party’s new presidential nominee will face a barrage of challenges. They’ll be forced to persuade Democratic delegates predisposed to backing the sitting vice president that they can overcome pressing questions about their credibility and ability to put together a general election campaign in a matter of weeks.
The party’s ingrained loyalty to Harris was underscored shortly after Biden’s announcement when he formally endorsed his vice president, echoing the views of many members of the party.
“There is one person who has stood by Joe Biden for the last three and half years, who has been preparing for this job and who is eminently qualified, and her name is Kamala Harris,” said RL Miller, a DNC delegate from California. “Any effort to nominate someone ‘more electable,’ and by ‘more electable,’ I mean whiter than Kamala, needs to explain why they would be turning their backs on a critical segment of the Democratic Party.”
Former President Bill Clinton and former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton also endorsed Harris on Sunday, in another sign of party leaders attempting to thwart any alternative candidate from emerging. Another Democratic leader who was widely seen as a potential presidential candidate should Biden step aside, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, also endorsed Harris on Monday.
Other Democrats, however, cautioned that the party should keep an open mind about who its next nominee should be. Former President Barack Obama Sunday voiced support for an open process, saying he was confident “that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.”
Democrat turned independent Sen. Joe Manchin also said replacing Biden should be an “open process” and named Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as potential alternatives. Manchin himself is now said to be considering it.
Privately, some Democratic strategists said they thought an open process would benefit Harris, making it seem as if she earned the party’s nomination rather than having it handed to her. Let the party air its concerns about her candidacy now, they say, to make it easier to unite behind her candidacy after the convention.
“I would bet big money on Kamala emerging from a contested convention,” said one Democratic strategist familiar with the convention process. “But I think it’s better she emerges as a nominee from a contested convention as opposed to being anointed.”
A small group of Democratic leaders are seen as having the credibility and resources to challenge for the nomination, a high-profile list that includes Shapiro, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Harris formally announced Sunday that she would be seeking the nomination.)
None publicly indicated interest in running for the nomination in the immediate aftermath of Biden’s decision. And in the hours since, they’ve all backed Harris. Shapiro endorsed Harris in a statement, saying “she has served the country honorably as Vice President and she is ready to be President.” Newsom followed endorsing Harris soon after, saying there’s “no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump’s dark vision.” Pritzker endorsed Harris on Monday, calling her a “champion of the American values we hold dear.” Whitmer publicly endorsed soon after.
Supporters of Newsom were circulating a polling memo purporting to show Newsom’s strengths in a hypothetical matchup with GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, Semafor reported Sunday. But the pollster who conducted the survey, Ben Tulchin, told NOTUS that the data included in the memo show that both Newsom and Harris would perform better than Biden and should not be construed as proof that the California governor would make for a stronger candidate than the vice president or that Newsom is even considering entering the race.
“My goal here for the memo is to show that there was a better path forward than Biden, whether that’s Gavin or Kamala,” Tulchin said.
Any nominee other than Harris would face a raft of challenges. For one, only the vice president is believed to be able to inherit Biden’s existing fundraising and campaign machinery, forcing other Democratic candidates to build an entire political apparatus from scratch just months before Election Day.
Other candidates also would not have been vetted to the degree Harris has, Democratic strategists say, and are far less well-versed in national and international issues with little time to learn about them.
Ultimately, any candidate who isn’t Harris would have to win support from DNC delegates who see Harris as the rightful alternative. In interviews this month, a broad cross-section of them say they had every reason to support the vice president if Biden stepped down.
“A lot of people have been throwing names out and about and they continue to leave our vice president’s name out of that mix,” Shelia Huggins, a DNC delegate from North Carolina said. “As a Black woman sitting here, I get very concerned when we have people overlooking her. That’s a problem.”
Beyond representing key voting blocs for the party, several Democrats said they’d remain loyal to Harris because it’s the rightful path in the line of succession.
“If anything happens to the president, the vice president takes over,” said Jennifer Marshall, a delegate from North Carolina. “We chose her, and we accepted that choice and supported that choice … Why deviate from that plan?”
Some delegates are even convinced that Harris’ chances against Trump are worth taking.
“I think she has an excellent shot at winning,” said Carol Fowler, a delegate from South Carolina. “I know her and I like her, and I think the whole goal at this point is to nominate somebody who can win, and I believe she is that person.”
Other delegates saw her prosecutorial background — Harris is a former attorney general of California — as the right biography for this moment in politics.
“Who better to take on a convicted criminal than a woman who spent her career prosecuting criminals?” Robert Leonard, a delegate from Maryland, said.
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Alex Roarty is a reporter at NOTUS. Calen Razor, John T. Seward and Tara Kavaler are NOTUS reporters and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellows.