Publicly, President Donald Trump says everything is going to plan; it’s just the “Panicans” causing a ruckus online.
“Twitter is not real life,” one Trump official told NOTUS, dismissing the administration’s critics, even as the stock market fluctuated wildly Monday at the insinuation that the tariff regime would end.
Privately, though, the White House is well aware of the tumult the trade agenda has caused. One GOP strategist who is in communication with the administration said “they’re putting out fires.” And they’re working their networks who influence the narrative on social media platforms like X.
The Trump administration was brought to power by an electorate weary of inflation — an issue Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were unable to successfully campaign their way through. As the trade wars threaten widespread price increases, the Trump White House feels it’s uniquely positioned to win that messaging battle over time. Trump has a public persona unlike any other president and his relationships with powerful online voices will be key to preventing a repeat of Biden’s political peril, the Trump official suggested.
“He’s going to Truth Social his way through this and we’re gonna follow up by beating the drum,” a second White House official said.
If the earliest days of the tariff agenda are any sign, however, the White House is facing an uphill battle. The stock market ping-ponged all day Monday before closing at a loss. Big Wall Street names, including strong Trump supporters like investor Bill Ackman, have begged Trump to press the brakes on his tariff train.
As the pushback to the tariffs mounted last week, Trump surrogates, too, said they saw diverging messaging from the White House, the GOP strategist told NOTUS. Trump-supporting influencers organized themselves behind a “short-term pain, long-term gain,” message, which has dominated most of the online GOP class over the weekend.
“They need to hold more calls, more briefings,” the strategist said, offering advice to White House aides. “Most of us are not economists, we’re all just shooting from the hip.”
The White House said Trump cabinet officials are talking to key stakeholders across the country, like those on Wall Street, union members and farmers to ease concerns around tariffs. One Trump official told NOTUS that countries began reaching out immediately after the Rose Garden “Liberation Day” announcement, and it appears negotiations are beginning with a select few countries on a staff level.
That said, widespread panic and uncertainty is still the driving force in Washington. One trade lobbyist responded with a “shrug” emoticon when asked what to make of the trade agenda.
While the White House has also maintained communication with its outside ally network, including the MAGA influencers that helped put Trump back in the White House, the message hasn’t always been consistent. When White House aides insisted there would be no negotiations over tariff rates — despite Trump seemingly telegraphing he was open to it — Trump’s base hewed closer to the president.
“Influencers are always going to follow the president’s message, not talking points put out by staff,” the GOP strategist said.
Messaging from MAGA influencers has ranged from a video Trump reposted suggesting the stock market crashed “on purpose” to suggestions that any money lost by Americans is worth it for the cause. Some have celebrated the number of countries reaching out to the U.S. to negotiate as a sign that the tariff announcement has already done its job, while the White House has continued to insist tariffs will not be dropped anytime soon.
The White House said it has dispersed talking points to online personalities, members of Congress, economists and others in the right-wing politics ecosystem.
The administration has published a steady stream of commentary from what an official called “real America,” in opposition to a consensus from economists “who have never worked blue-collar jobs.” A White House release on Monday quoted a retired auto worker, a cattle farmer, a shrimp producer, the owner of a kids bike company and the owner of a Chevrolet dealership as a list of “Everyday Americans” who “Support President Trump’s Trade Action.” (At least one member of the list was in attendance when Trump announced the tariffs at the Rose Garden.)
White House aides are pointing to a local media strategy, as well, using stations like Sinclair and Nexstar as well as local papers to sell their message. Cabinet members have been doing interviews with local channels over the last two months, they say.
Lacking in the White House talking points, however, is how long the White House thinks the pain will last — and ultimately what Trump’s end goal is.
“It is such a mixed message. And then to ask the American people to sacrifice? It’s just unclear what that means to people, even among his base here in New Hampshire, is what I’m finding,” said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist who splits time between New Hampshire and Washington. Bartlett served in the first Trump administration’s State Department, resigning following the events of Jan. 6, 2021.
“Americans are resilient, and it has been an incredibly disruptive couple of years, maybe decades. So I think there is a notion of sacrifice, of understanding, of patriotism” to take some pain for the greater good, Bartlett said. But this disruption feels “self-inflicted,” he went on. “At the end of the day, there needs to be results. What does a win look like? And that has yet to be defined.”
Even Trump’s staunchest allies are warning of political fallout. In a recent episode of his podcast, Sen. Ted Cruz said a recession “politically would be a bloodbath” for the GOP.
Historically, rising prices are a hit that a presidency cannot sustain, according to a 2008 political science study which found that presidents get blamed for higher-than-expected inflation and no credit for lower-than-expected inflation. Democrats who campaigned through the latest inflation surge and the election that followed know that reality all too well.
“As someone who ran and won on the same ballot as Trump, people voted their pocketbooks,” freshman Sen. Elissa Slotkin told NOTUS. “They know exactly what they spend on things, and they’re not stupid.”
Former Biden White House economic aide Alex Jacquez, who now leads a progressive coalition to rebuild Democratic power around the argument that Republican policy hurts the working class, was more succinct.
“Inflation is a president killer,” he said.
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Jasmine Wright and Evan McMorris-Santoro are reporters at NOTUS. Taylor Giorno and Torrence Banks contributed to this report.