Democrats thought having abortion rights on the ballot would put Republicans on the defensive, supercharge turnout and deliver victories like the ones they saw in 2022 after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Instead, Tuesday’s election results are empowering Republicans and anti-abortion activists to lean harder into an anti-abortion platform than they ever have before.
Over the course of the campaign, Republicans repeatedly attempted to change their messaging: saying abortion is a state issue, trying to make a “pro-family” message and avoid talk of bans, claiming that there shouldn’t be a united GOP message, arguing that a personhood bill is not an abortion ban, focusing all of their reproductive health messaging on IVF and even borrowing terminology from the abortion rights movement.
But advocates hope that the election results empower Republicans. If the GOP gains control of the House, they’ll have a trifecta in Washington. It’s unclear exactly what would get through Congress, given the 60-vote threshold for legislation in the Senate and a likely narrow majority in the House, but the days of Republicans shying away from talking about abortion seem over.
It’s unclear whether anti-abortion legislation would move up higher under the legislative priority, Speaker Mike Johnson’s office did not return a request for comment, but for longtime allies of the anti-abortion movement in Congress, they are happy their colleagues will be able to speak out more forcefully.
GOP Rep. Mike Kelly, who has introduced a bill to federally ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy multiple times, told NOTUS that it is “absolutely” time for Republicans to be louder about their anti-abortion beliefs.
“I don’t believe you should let a political, what some people think is a political advantage, be that way,” Kelly, who is not in a competitive district, said. “I am always going to vote for life.”
Mark Houck, an anti-abortion activist who tried to unseat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a primary, said that Donald Trump’s victory, Republicans’ majority in the Senate and the potential GOP control of the House are “the victory for our nation and the victory for life.” He told NOTUS that the election showed that voters’ “ears are open” to anti-abortion messaging.
“I think look, look at what happened with Trump. We didn’t care about all his felonies, we didn’t care about all of his convictions or so-called convictions. We wanted a president that’s going to represent our views. And so clearly, it’s like, you know, people have already given their consent to this type of politician. This is who we want. The majority in the popular vote says, ‘No, we want this man. He does protect human life. He is pro-life. He’s the most pro-life president of all time.’ We’re banking on that,” Houck said.
Data shows that abortion was not top of mind for most voters. Only 25% of voters said that abortion was the most important factor to their vote, with larger shares saying their biggest issues were the border (29%), free speech (31%), inflation (40%) and the future of democracy (50%), according to a KFF analysis of an Associated Press survey that polled over 115,000 voters nationally conducted between Oct. 28 and when the polls closed on Tuesday.
Those numbers were even lower with independent voters, with 21% saying it was their most important issue. Democrats had hoped that abortion rights support would rally undecided voters to their side.
Trump managed to neutralize the issue during the campaign. His most consistent abortion message this cycle was that it is up to the states, and Democratic strategists previously admitted to NOTUS that the president-elect’s messaging may have worked. At the same time, Trump managed to keep the anti-abortion movement in his corner, with groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Students for Life — both want to see a federal ban enacted — saying they made unprecedented investments in voter outreach efforts to turn people away from Kamala Harris.
In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Sen. Bob Casey’s rebrand from a “pro-life Democrat” to someone who wanted to enshrine abortion protections was not enough to save him. Dave McCormick, who said he doesn’t support a federal ban, defeated the incumbent in a tight race with anti-abortion groups’ support.
Anti-abortion advocates saw their biggest wins in years on Tuesday. Measures to protect abortion rights — in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota — failed for the first time since the Dobbs decision. Nebraska also became the first state to have an anti-abortion measure win at the ballot box since then.
“If the playing field is evened by pro-life elected officials fighting back, life wins. Abortion activists’ lies do not prevail when Republicans devote money and messaging to the truth,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
She said Republicans should follow Gov. Ron DeSantis’ example, saying that he “did not back down” and “traveled across the state” to speak with voters about his opposition to Florida’s abortion rights initiative (although most Florida voters supported the measure). She also thanked Sen. Pete Ricketts, who backed Nebraska’s anti-abortion measure, and Rep. Dusty Johnson in South Dakota, who “ran ads and sent mailers” to voters saying the abortion rights referendum went too far.
Dannenfelser has been saying since 2022 that running away from abortion is a losing strategy for Republicans.
“Life wins, when fought for with courage and conviction,” Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life, said in a statement. She added that there is “no joy, no hope, and no future for an abortion-only campaign.”
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Oriana González is a reporter at NOTUS.