The swamp appears to be doing just fine.
Second-quarter lobbying disclosures were due Monday at midnight, offering a window into the money flowing to influence federal policy and policymakers. Businesses, universities and other institutions turned to K Street to help them navigate the first six months of President Donald Trump’s term: There were 3,482 lobbying registrations filed from the inauguration on Jan. 20 to June 30, a 72.4% increase from 2,020 registrations filed during the same period in 2024.
Several firms with ties to the Trump administration posted eye-watering federal lobbying revenue, and bipartisan legal and lobbying giants have largely weathered the shock of the transition. Big spenders scored big wins, including a Japanese steelmaker and the cryptocurrency industry.
Here are some takeaways from the filings.
Trump-tied firms are cashing in
Former Trump administration officials have been in high demand, and firms with close ties to Trump have seen their revenues rise significantly since he took office.
Both Ballard Partners, where chief of staff Susie Wiles and Attorney General Pam Bondi used to work, and Miller Strategies have parlayed their close ties to the Trump administration into a deluge of new, high-paying clients — more than enough to recoup their sizable contributions to Trump’s presidential campaign.
Both firms saw a bump during the first Trump administration, but their revenue is reaching new heights.
Ballard Partners reported receiving nearly $20.9 million during the second quarter, while Miller Strategies reported receiving nearly $12.9 million, according to a NOTUS analysis of new lobbying disclosures. For comparison, during the same period in 2024, Ballard Partners reported receiving $4.3 million and Miller Strategies reported receiving $2.9 million.
That’s a 387% increase for Ballard Partners and a 346% increase for Miller Strategies.
Neither firm responded to requests for comment from NOTUS.
By federal lobbying revenue, Ballard Partners and Miller Strategies have skyrocketed into the top 10 firms in town. The question now is, how long will it last?
Lobbying giants with bipartisan teams are absorbing the shock
The Trump administration came in hot with sweeping tariffs, attacks on law firms and universities, intense scrutiny of food and pharmaceuticals and, of course, the massive GOP-led budget bill the president signed into law on July 4.
“The return of a focused, aggressive and experienced Trump team generated immense pressure for government relations leaders to identify new opportunities, avoid new pitfalls and understand the new political and global dynamics driving policy outcomes,” Bruce Mehlman, founding partner at Mehlman Consulting and former assistant secretary of commerce during George W. Bush’s administration, said in an email to NOTUS.
So far, it seems lobbying firms are adapting to the new political order.
The three biggest lobbying firms by revenue in 2024 — Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and BGR Group, in that order — all saw higher revenue last quarter compared to the same period a year ago.
Brownstein posted a new record during the second quarter: $18.9 million in revenue. Akin reported nearly $16.4 million in federal lobbying between April and June, its best second quarter ever. And BGR Group raked in nearly $17.7 million, a quarterly record for the firm and up from $11.3 million the same time last year.
Hunter Bates, co-head of Akin’s lobbying and public policy practice, attributed the growth to the tax bill and trade policy.
“The tax bill was a key growth driver, with clients across industries turning to the firm to navigate their most pressing and complex tax-related concerns ahead of the bill’s enactment. Advisory work related to trade policy and tariffs also continues to fuel strong demand, further bolstered by the arrival of former top Trump administration trade official Kelly Ann Shaw,” Bates said in a statement.
Big spenders score big wins
Big spenders including Nippon Steel and the cryptocurrency industry have scored big wins since Trump took office.
Tied for the largest individual contract of the second quarter, Nippon Steel paid Akin $1.2 million for federal lobbying last quarter as the Japanese steelmaker pushed the Trump administration to approve a merger with U.S. Steel. Trump, then-President Joe Biden and then-Vice President Kamala Harris during last year’s presidential campaign all opposed the merger.
Most of the time it’s not possible to discern how much money is spent lobbying on a single issue. But Akin disclosed working on just one issue for the steelmaker: “The proposed merger of Nippon Steel and US Steel.”
For context, that’s about as much as J.P. Morgan and Citigroup spent on federal lobbying last quarter to lobby on a much broader range of issues.
After the expensive lobbying campaign, Trump reversed course on the steel deal and announced a “partnership” between the two companies. Nippon Steel had also reportedly promised to up its investment in U.S. Steel to $14 billion.
While it’s not always possible to spend out of a sticky situation, Dan Auble, a senior researcher who studies lobbying at the money-in-politics research nonprofit OpenSecrets, said in an email to NOTUS that big spenders are often well positioned when policy openings arise.
“Money follows power and vice versa. It is tough to determine a win rate for lobbying since a company may win by having one paragraph removed from a bill or by watering down a regulation. That said, companies that have invested in influencing Congress have their foot in the door when one of those opportunities arises,” Auble said.
The cryptocurrency industry is a perfect example of that. In recent years, cryptocurrency companies including Coinbase have spent millions of dollars lobbying lawmakers to pass comprehensive crypto legislation. That spending helped them through the “crypto winter” — the tenuous period following the downfall in November 2022 of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, the then-face of crypto in Washington who was convicted last year of fraud, conspiracy and other charges.
Two-and-a-half years after the collapse of FTX, the crypto industry scored a major win last week when Trump signed a historic stablecoin bill into law. The industry is now pushing Congress to send comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations to the president’s desk by Sept. 30.
Quarter lobbying totals are an undercount
Under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, lobbyists only need to register and report their activities and revenue if they spend a certain amount of time lobbying and receive a certain amount of money. Those who skirt in under the threshold can shield their activities — and paycheck — from the public, hence the name, “shadow lobbying.”
Auble said studies have shown there are twice as many people in government relations than are required to register.
“Registered lobbyists are the ones making direct contact with officials, and even if they do that they can skirt the requirement if they don’t spend a significant part of their time working on lobbying for each client. And the definitions around determining that are flexible and poorly enforced,” Auble said.
Firms are also increasingly launching in-house public affairs practices, as Brownstein did last quarter. Public affairs work, which can include launching digital campaigns or “public education,” are not captured in federal lobbying disclosures.