How Georgia Republicans fare in the 2026 elections could hinge on someone who might not even be on the ballot: Brian Kemp.
Kemp, the state’s popular term-limited governor, has yet to announce whether he’ll challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026. If he does, Republican operatives are optimistic about their chances — not only against Ossoff, but in the open statewide races as well.
But if Kemp doesn’t run, strategists expect the consequences to cascade down the ballot, threatening Republicans’ tenuous grip on political power in Georgia.
“The ripple effects of Brian Kemp not running for Senate are pretty profound,” one veteran strategist told NOTUS, requesting anonymity to speak freely.
For years, Republicans have had a stranglehold on Georgia’s statewide offices. Even as the state became a key battleground at the national level, electing two Democratic senators and flipping to Joe Biden in 2020, Republicans have maintained their status as the governing party of Georgia. They currently hold all major statewide offices.
But their margins of victory have dwindled in recent elections. And a lot rides on the Senate race to lift lower races, particularly in a midterm election that could be favorable to Democrats, operatives said.
That’s where Kemp comes in. He’s considered by far the best candidate to oppose Ossoff, given his favorable ratings as governor and high name recognition. While he previously had a fraught relationship with President Donald Trump, the two managed to be cordial during the later stages of Trump’s presidential campaign.
Recent polling conducted by the conservative group WPA Intelligence for the Club for Growth showed Kemp as the only Republican in position to unseat Ossoff. That sentiment is shared in political circles across the state.
“I hate to say it to you, but he’d win,” one person familiar with the Ossoff campaign said of Kemp, requesting anonymity to speak about the race. “He’d beat us.”
Ossoff “will win” if he’s not up against Kemp, the person predicted. “He will beat Buddy Carter. He will beat Marjorie Taylor Greene.”
Reps. Carter and Greene have both been mentioned as potential Republican Senate candidates, although neither has announced a bid.
“Whether the governor is on the ballot in 2026 or not, Georgia Republicans will be united to defeat Jon Ossoff and ensure our state finally has a voice that reflects our values in the U.S. Senate,” Cody Hall, a Kemp senior adviser, told NOTUS.
Though he’s a Democratic senator in a center-right state, Ossoff is viewed as remarkably resilient. He has balanced more partisan platforms (restricting arms sales to Israel) with bipartisan efforts (addressing pervasive issues in the prison system) to foster a moderate political image, while still often voting like a progressive’s progressive.
Ossoff’s campaign currently carries a hair under $5 million in cash on hand. Add to that the power of incumbency, which is historically tough to overcome in Senate elections — though Georgia has been a recent exception — and Ossoff is a formidable opponent, even in a state that solidly turned out for Trump only four months ago.
If Ossoff wins, it could bolster other Democrats, too.
“Hypothetically, if Ossoff were to win his race by a point-and-a-half or two points, which would be awful for Republicans, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where there’s not drag on the rest of the ticket,” Republican strategist Chip Lake said. “The governor knows that, too.”
Each major statewide office will be up for grabs in 2026, with an expected jostling among the most well-known Republican figures for higher office. Attorney General Chris Carr has already announced a bid for governor, while Lt. Gov. Burt Jones recently said that there was “no secret” he’s also eyeing a run for the governor’s mansion.
“These are not going to be nice primaries,” the veteran strategist said. “They’re going to be nasty. And you run the risk of real, real fatigue.”
Republican operatives worry that a Trump-less, Kemp-less ballot could lack the juice to pull voters to the polls.
“He’s a fundraising juggernaut,” conservative operative Cole Muzio said of Kemp. “He’s got an incredible network all across the state.”
“He’s unique in the sense of, he’s a reassuring figure to almost everybody,” Muzio added.
Muzio said he was confident that Democrats would face an uphill battle to win statewide positions regardless of who Republicans put up for Senate. But having Kemp in the race would be a “huge, huge plus.”
In 2022, Kemp easily defeated Democratic activist Stacey Abrams in what was expected to be a tight rematch of their showdown in 2018, when Kemp was first elected governor. And while Herschel Walker, beleaguered by multiple scandals, failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, other Republicans running that year won their down-ballot races.
If Kemp has made a decision on his next move, he hasn’t broadcast it. His office did not respond to NOTUS’ request for comment. Kemp said last month that he was not ready to make an announcement — “I know I can’t keep holding out forever, so we’ll have something to say on that down the road” — and he isn’t expected to during the legislative session.
Kemp is expected to clear the field if he makes a bid, and no one who spoke with NOTUS thinks Trump would endorse against him. Trump’s input would matter, however, if Kemp stays out of the race. Lake said the race would remain “a Wild, Wild West scenario if the governor decides not to run.”
The prevailing sentiment among the state’s political insiders is that Kemp remains reluctant to make the jump to Washington. As one operative described it, if he asked four people, three would say Kemp won’t run.
Some argue that Kemp’s decision could be tied to the success of his push for tort reform. The governor has expended significant political capital to implement comprehensive changes to injury litigation laws. If it passes — two reforms have already passed the state Senate and are under consideration by the House — it’s the feather in the cap of Kemp’s legacy.
“There’s no guarantee that it pushes him into the race,” one operative, who is an advocate for the reforms, said. “But it can only help him by getting this passed, and it can only hurt him by failing.”
Among potential Republican candidates, Kemp is the only one to experience as cutthroat a statewide race as Ossoff’s 2020 victory over former Georgia Sen. David Perdue. He won his first race against Abrams by a scant 54,723 votes.
“What I think will motivate him ultimately is that he might be the only person in the party that is capable of winning this seat,” the veteran strategist said. “Obviously, it would still be a fight to the death.”
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Ben T.N. Mause is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.