When it comes to the Senate Republican primary in Texas — a state where Texas pride is thicker than the blood at the Alamo — the person who will matter most is hardly a Texan at all: President Donald Trump.
With Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s entry into the primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Trump very well may tip the political scales toward one of those candidates. Or he could go in a completely different direction. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also said to be considering a run. Or — some argue — he could stay neutral.
Either way, operatives told NOTUS that Trump’s endorsement would likely determine the whole race.
“That’s the 800-pound gorilla,” said one Texas Republican strategist, who asked for anonymity to speak freely. “His endorsement is the most powerful of any we’ve seen in our party in 25 or 30 years.”
Paxton and Cornyn couldn’t be more different. Paxton considers himself a close Trump ally, one who got on the Trump train during the president’s first term and earned his endorsement in state elections. Trump came to Paxton’s defense during his high-profile impeachment in 2023, where it was alleged he was abusing his power, accepting bribes and helping his wealthy friend and campaign donor. When Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate, Trump claimed credit for his acquittal, writing on Truth Social it was because of his “intervention.” Paxton is hoping Trump intervenes once again, this time in the form of an endorsement.
Meanwhile, Cornyn has built a reputation as a bipartisan operator on Capitol Hill, garnering criticism from his more conservative colleagues — including his fellow Texan, Sen. Ted Cruz — for working with Democrats on key pieces of legislation during his tenure in the Senate.
Cruz himself has stayed out of endorsing in the primary so far, which is notable considering he works with Cornyn.
But Cornyn has faced conservative criticism for voting to certify the 2020 election results and for working with Democrats to pass legislation in 2022 that would strengthen gun control laws.
Conyn’s response to those potential primary pitfalls has been to work around the clock to show his allegiance to the president. In the last six months of the Senate Republican leadership race, which Cornyn lost to now-Leader John Thune, Cornyn and Trump’s relationship grew even stronger. Cornyn appeared with Trump at a campaign event in Nevada and sided with him on issues such as his desire for recess appointments.
Cornyn told CNN he speaks to Trump regularly but did not say whether he has asked Trump for an endorsement.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has endorsed Cornyn for reelection in his official capacity and has asked Trump to endorse Cornyn. It’s expected to be a very expensive primary that could potentially cost tens of millions of dollars, a person close to Scott told NOTUS.
Thune, for his part, has endorsed Cornyn as well.
Just last cycle, Texas voters reelected Cruz in what was expected to be a tight contest between him and moderate Rep. Colin Allred. In the end, it wasn’t that close. Allred lost by 9 percentage points as Cruz name-checked Trump at every campaign stop he could. (Cruz repeatedly credited his alliance with Trump as one of many reasons he kept his seat.)
For the moment, with Trump on the sidelines, Texas operatives are predicting a bitter fight between Paxton and Cornyn.
“I think it’s gonna get very nasty,” said John Jackson, who ran Cornyn’s reelection campaign in 2020. “President Trump’s endorsement, as we’ve seen, is pretty influential on the outcome of a Republican primary election.”
Paxton allies are confident that he will be able to defeat Cornyn in the primary. One political strategist close to Paxton pointed to the last time an incumbent senator was defeated in a primary, which was in 2012 when then-Sen. Richard Lugar was beaten by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock. Mourdock went on to lose against then-Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly.
“This could easily be the next time it happens,” the Republican strategist said.
Paxton, for his part, said voters across Texas had “not forgotten that John Cornyn not only said that President Trump’s ‘time has passed him by,’ but he also defended the bogus witch hunts against both President Trump and myself.”
“Texas deserves to be represented by a principled America First fighter, not someone who’s been in Washington for over two decades and is most well known for teaming up with Joe Biden to pass gun control, trying to stop President Trump, and calling the border wall ‘naive,’” Paxton said in a statement.
Cornyn allies argued that, should he lose to Paxton in a primary, Paxton would be too conservative to beat whoever becomes the Democratic opponent.
Cornyn’s campaign is already hitting hard against Paxton with its first digital ad of the cycle: a website that slams Paxton for his scandals.
“Senator Cornyn has never lost an election in Texas and the reason for that is that he serves the state well, has a 99% record of voting with President Trump, and he runs aggressive, professional, well-funded campaigns that offer a choice for the voters,” a spokesperson for Cornyn told NOTUS.
Thus far, Trump has remained neutral, a sign he’s weighing his options.
“They’re both friends of mine. They’re both good men. And I don’t know. We don’t know who else is running, but these two — Ken, John — they’re both friends of mine,” Trump told reporters earlier this month. “So I’ll make a determination at the right time.”
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Daniella Diaz is a reporter at NOTUS. Casey Murray is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.