California’s crowded race for governor remains wide open a year out from the election. And, like the Democratic Party nationwide, state Democrats are struggling to figure out who can best lead them in the Trump era.
“It seems to be at a plateau right now,” Rep. Julia Brownley told NOTUS when asked about the race.
“People in California are looking for a very dynamic leader because we are in very troubling times, and people are unsure of who that is,” she later added.
The Trump administration has made California one of the frontiers to test the limits of executive power with National Guard deployments and aggressive immigration enforcement, and whoever becomes the state’s next governor will play a key role in setting the tone for Democratic opposition.
As the primary approaches, California Democrats are facing the same struggles as other would-be party leaders nationwide: how to engage their base, win back disaffected voters and differentiate themselves from a large pack.
“This may be the most wide open governor’s race we’ve seen here in close to a half century,” Dan Schnur, a political analyst who has worked on various gubernatorial campaigns, told NOTUS. “The winner of this gubernatorial primary is going to play a disproportionate role in deciding where and how California Democrats go next.”
In an August poll from Emerson College, almost 40% of California voters said they were undecided. While the poll found that former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter had a slight lead, it was released before a disastrous interview with a local news station and a video of her berating a former staffer went viral.
Porter’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Apart from Porter, some of the main Democratic contenders for the nomination are former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state legislator Ian Calderon and former Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited, looms over the race. He has become one of President Donald Trump’s top antagonists, and Democratic candidates who might’ve campaigned against Newsom’s record (which has been contentious among Democrats) now have to find other ways to persuade voters.
Irene Kao, a California-based Democratic strategist, said campaigns have failed to create distinctive proposals that resonate with voters. Candidates are overly reliant on polling, which has “started to make people too cautious,” she said.
“This speaks of what we’re also seeing from national Democratic leadership, people are almost afraid to do and say the right things unless they know it’s confirmed by the voters,” Kao said. “Because there’s so many candidates, they’re having a hard time distinguishing themselves and being really clear about defining what their California-specific platform is … Now, it feels like people are constantly hedging.”
Calderon, a former majority leader of the California State Assembly, announced his bid for governor about three weeks ago. He told NOTUS that Democrats have struggled to capture the attention of California voters because they’re failing to address the issues most Americans are concerned about.
“It is going to come down to candidate and who people truly feel they’re authentic,” Calderon said. “I think that there has been a lack of interest in this race because people haven’t seen that.”
Calderon said he is trying to model his campaign and social media presence on Zohran Mamdani’s approach in the race for New York City mayor.
“Democrats are struggling talking to people in a way that they want to be spoken to, and in the ways that they’re digesting this information with social media and others,” Calderon said. “The whole entire platform of the Democratic Party is: Whatever Trump’s for, we’re against.”
Other California Democrats say it is simply too early in the race to understand its contours. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill and other observers have been waiting for establishment Democrats to decide whether they enter the race or not for the better part of the year.
First, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who earlier in the year said she would make a decision on a gubernatorial run by the end of summer, announced in July that she was not running. And Sen. Alex Padilla, who has been rumored as a possible candidate, has repeatedly refused to say whether he will run.
“I’m focused on Prop 50 right now,” Padilla said when asked for his perspective on the race.
Other California Democrats say there is still time for a frontrunner to emerge.
“This is early days; the field is so unsettled that I don’t think we’re there yet. Once the field gets settled, we start to have people getting categorized, and we start setting those getting defined,” Rep. Jared Huffman of California told NOTUS.
“It’s pretty dynamic, I think there’s still some moving parts in California. I think there are still some significant chips still in play,” he added.
There could be drawbacks to launching a bid now, when Proposition 50 is getting most of the attention from Democrats in California.
“Announcing running right now, whether this is fair or not, basically sounds to voters like, ‘Oh, good, it’s all about you now,’” Anat Shenker-Osorio, a progressive consultant who frequently attends panels with disenfranchised voters, told NOTUS.
“Once you make that announcement, it looks like it’s all in service of your own ambition and not in service of what people desperately want and need,” Shenker-Osorio said. “And what voters are absolutely desperate for, especially voters in a place like California, is someone to step up and actually present a repudiation of the fascism.”
Rep. Robert Garcia said Proposition 50 is the main focus as voting day nears, but he expects more interest in the governor’s race afterward.
“I think we have a lot of great candidates in the governor’s race, and it’s still very fluid. We’re not sure yet, of course, what the final group of candidates will be, but there’s lots of great people running,” Garcia said.