Arizona Republicans are desperate to avoid nominating another gubernatorial candidate who wins the primary but falls short in a general election.
It’s why some of them are already getting nervous about Rep. Andy Biggs.
Biggs, a member of Congress who is now running for governor, reminds some GOP operatives of former statewide nominee Kari Lake, who was popular with the base but polarizing with other voters. Lake bested her primary opponents in her 2022 bid for governor and her 2024 bid for Senate, only to lose in a general election both times.
Some Republicans think history may repeat itself if Biggs becomes the nominee.
“2026 is an eminently winnable year for Republicans in the gubernatorial race,” Barrett Marson, a longtime Republican consultant in Arizona, told NOTUS. “The only way they could potentially blow it is if we nominate Andy Biggs.”
Biggs is up against former lobbyist Karrin Taylor Robson in next year’s Republican primary. If he wins, he would face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs — who has already beat one conservative firebrand in her career — in a general election. Both Republicans have President Donald Trump’s backing, but critics of Biggs say his hard-line conservative stances could make it hard for him to defeat Hobbs.
While in the Arizona Legislature, Biggs sponsored legislation to abolish Arizona’s Medicaid program and voted against requiring people convicted of sexual crimes, such as rape, in other states to register as sex offenders in Arizona upon moving there. More recently, he voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and pushed for steep cuts to Medicaid in the reconciliation bill.
“I’m worried about nominating Andy Biggs for governor,” one elected Arizona Republican official said about Biggs in a text message, adding that the lawmaker has “some real electability hurdles that could tank us in 2026.”
“It’s all about strategy and winning for Arizona, not just ideology — and frankly, his poor legislative record, where he’s rarely delivered real or meaningful results, makes him an even tougher sell,” the official said.
Biggs’ fundraising is also a concern. The congressman raised only $1.38 million during the last election cycle, an unimpressive sum for most members of Congress and far from what he would need to raise to unseat an incumbent governor like Hobbs.
Biggs raised $429,000 for his gubernatorial campaign in the second quarter of this year; Robson, his primary opponent, raised $577,000 and loaned her campaign $2.2 million.
Adding to the fundraising pressure is the late date of Arizona’s primary, Aug. 4, which means the GOP nominee will have just three months to raise cash while running against a well-funded incumbent.
Still, some Republicans are taking a wait-and-see approach with Biggs, saying they’ll be better ready to assess the viability of his candidacy after seeing how he conducts his campaign and how much money he raises.
“If Biggs can show that, A, he’s going to run a campaign like a grown-up, and B, that he can raise the type of money you actually need to run a competitive statewide gubernatorial race in Arizona, it would change the calculus for some folks on whether or not he’s viable,” said one Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Some Republicans, even those wary of Biggs’ ability to win, are hesitant to make a comparison to Lake — in part, they say, because the personally understated congressman stands in sharp contrast with Lake’s TV-driven star personality.
“Judging objectively, you’d say, “OK, Kari was able to have these rallies, draw attention. There were international reporters covering her campaign,’” an Arizona Republican strategist said. “I don’t really see that happening here. So I think he has a much different brand than she does in that respect.”
The differences with Lake, the source added, are a double-edged sword for Biggs, who might struggle to attract attention but could stand a better chance of impressing voters who pay attention.
Bigg’s colleagues described him as a “happy warrior” and someone who knows how to get a conservative message across without creating many enemies.
“I don’t know if you’ve ever spent much time with Biggs. But unlike a lot of America First fire-breathers that fire up the crowd, Biggs is kind of a happy warrior,” Rep. Eli Crane said of Biggs. “He’s got friends everywhere, and it’s not to say that there are some people that you know are in opposition to him, but he doesn’t pick personal fights with people. He keeps everything professional.”
One national GOP strategist said Biggs is the best Republican to fire up the base and make them excited to vote in a midterm election.
“If you believe, like I do, that this general election is going to come down to who can turn out the Trump vote or who can turn out the most of the Trump 2024 electorate? You’re not going to do that with candidates who don’t look like Trump,” they said. “And so you need to find candidates who are close to Trump to turn out that coalition … I think Biggs is the one who gives the best chance.”
Despite critics hammering his legislative record, Biggs says he is confident that his record as leader of the state Senate would be a boost to his campaign.
“I know the agencies, I know the spending. I know how it goes in Arizona,” Biggs said. “I have a record — a consistent record of performance, excellence and getting things done. So I think that that’s a real difference.”